With the Tour now less than 24 hours away, I wanted to preview what is shaping up as an epic 3-week bike ride around France. It actually starts tomorrow (Saturday) with a fairly technical individual time trial in Monaco. Although only 15.5 km, it is tough enough for the general classification contenders (i'll get to them in a second) to put some time on each other.
So a little background on this year's event. It starts in Monaco, winds its way thru the south of France into Spain, then goes back thru the Alps into Switzerland before finishing (as always) in Paris. The first week includes four fairly flat stages (perfect for sprint finishes), a team time trial (Stage 4) and only on Friday we will see the big mountains become a factor. So week 1 is all about the sprint finishes, although the big names will want to be somewhat competitive on the first individual time trial and the team time trial.
Okay, so who's going to win? Well, if I had to bet my house, I would probably bet on Astana's Alberto Contador. He has had a great year so far, rides for the strongest team, and has won his last 3 Grand Tours. Is he a sure shot? He is also the overwhelming betting favorite, at pretty close to even odds (you would have to bet a dollar to win a dollar), whereas Lance and the rest of the peloton is at least 5 to 1 odds (bet a dollar to win 5).
There are reasons why Contador might not win though. His three Grand Tours victories have all come against lesser fields than this year's Tour. As well, one of his teammates is Lance Armstrong, who may try to make some headlines of his own and possible usurp his own teammate. There are lots of rumblings about Team Astana being split with some riders being pro-Armstrong and some being pro-Contador. Lance has always targeted the Tour de France as his race, and it appears that he is finally in climbing shape to compete with the rest of the GC guys. He has lost weight, has trained at altitude, and appears ready to put his stamp on the 2009 Tour. Lance hasn't not won a Tour de France that he has competed in since 1996, and that was pre-cancer Lance.
So can Lance win? Sure he can. Anyone who counts Lance out right now is a fool, since Lance has made a career out of doing things that people tell him can't be done. Come back from cancer to win the Tour? Impossible. Win it a second time? Win it 5 times in a row? Six? Seven? Check. Lance has always done the impossible in France, and it appears that he will be giving it all he has again this year. Truthfully, a lot of us will be watching his time trial tomorrow to see if "old Lance" makes an appearance....
Ok, if not for the Astana boys (remember, they also have Andreas Kloden and Levi Leipheimer riding with Alberto and Lance too), who else could win? It's a pretty short list in 2009. There are really only 4 other main contenders who have the pedigree to challenge up front...
1. Carlos Sastre - Last year's winner is back. And while he showed amazing climbing fitness during the Giro when he simply left everyone else in his wake, he probably doesn't time trial well enough to stay close to the rest of the contenders. Add in the fact that his team (Cervelo TestTeam) is considerably weaker than his team of 2008 (where he had the Schlecks as helpers), and it's doubtful that Sastre will successfully defend his title. If he can stay close through the first two weeks, he could be a factor in week 3. He does seem to embrace his underdog role in 2009...
2. Andy Schleck - Now that Carlos Sastre has left to Team Cervelo, Andy Schleck is the main guy on Saxo Bank. His brother Frank, who lead the Tour for a few days last year before Carlos Sastre took over on Alpe D'Huez. Frank has not a great year in 2009, but younger brother Andy (who won the white jersey last year as best rider under 26 years old) has had a breakthrough year. He won Liege-Bastogne-Liege this year, and is the winner-in-waiting for La Fleche Wallone this year (where Davide Rebellin won but is now in a doping scandal). Andy proved he could hang with the big boys last year, but now that he is the main man for Saxo Bank, he will be expected to contend and be a key factor in the last week.
3. Cadel Evans - the Aussie who has finished 2nd in 2007 and 2008 is back in 2009 to try and move up to the top spot on the podium. The biggest question with Evans is his team (Silence-Lotto) since they don't have a great rider to stay with Evans near the end of the big mountain stages. Evans might have to do a lot of the work at the front by himself defending against all the rest of the top contenders, which might be tough with all the key helpers from Astana and Saxo Bank that can climb and help out their team leaders. Anyhow, Evans does have the experience, the climbing fitness (he actually beat Contador in the Dauphine Libere) and the time trial consistency to be factor.
Evans and Silence-Lotto also sustained a pretty good body blow this week, when teammate Thomas Dekker was excluded from the Tour after the UCI released the results of his biological passport. A test from December 2007 tested positive for EPO, so he is now suspended (and likely banned for two years). Dekker has been suspected for some time, with his 2008 team Rabobank actually keeping him from the 2008 Tour de France due to some "abnormal blood values". He was never suspended, and joined Rabobank at the end of 2008.
4. Denis Menchov - Just won the Giro by being the fastest time trialist of the real mountain climbers, and stayed near to his closest contenders on every climb to ensure that no one could make up the time gaps. But can he can go back to back? The last man to win both the Giro and the Tour in the same year was Marco Pantani in 1998. Can Menchov do it? I think he could. He's now won three Grand Tours, but he will have to attack way more in the Tour since it's unlikely that he will make up enough time in the time trials. He does have Robert Gesink as his key teammate in this year's Tour, and Menchov himself thinks he can win...
Personally, Contador looks almost unbeatable. But if he slips up once or twice, there will be a large group of contenders ready to take advantage. I'll pick Contador with Menchov and Lance rounding out the podium. Of the big names, I think Sastre might struggle a bit in 2009. I know he can climb, but i think he might lose too much time in the time trials to stay at the top. Here's a preview by VeloNews...
Lots more to come, including a look at possible winners of the Green and Polka-dot jerseys...stay tuned...
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