I know that some people might have interests outside of the ongoing Tour de France, but you people are out of luck. Actually, this Friday's Bikey might have something for you. So check back then. But for the rest of you...
This year's Tour is shaping up to be the dogfight that we expected it to be. But rather than the Contador vs Lance vs Cadel vs Schleck vs Sastre Tour that we all thought we might be seeing in the high mountains that start on Friday's Stage 7, the Tour so far has revolved around the question "Who is leading Team Astana?"
Let's recap quickly - rather predictably, Fabian Cancellara won the Stage 1 Time Trial to jump into yellow. Team Astana put four guys into the top 10 (including Contador in second and Lance in 10th) and the Tour settled into its predictable rhythm with a first week full of flat stages where the sprinters make headlines and the race faves settle into the background until the road goes up. Except after Stage 2 where Mark Cavendish easily took the sprint win, Stage 3 turned the race upside down. A freak crosswind broke the peloton apart with 25 km to go, and Lance Armstrong took full advantage. He tucked into the lead group that was driven by Team Columbia (ultimately resulting in another stage win for Cavendish), and gained 40 seconds on the trailing peloton that contained all the top GC riders, including Lance's teammate and Astana's supposed team leader Alberto Contador. This vaulted Lance from 10th into 3rd in the overall , ahead of Contador and the rest of the of the top riders after Stage 3.
This put Astana in the enviable position of having their two top riders near the top of the standings (Contador is 4th overall, 19 seconds back of Lance) but the unenviable position of having to decide which rider might be their true leader. This has been the question since Lance came back from retirement - who is the alpha male for Astana - but finally it appears that it is close to the time where we all find out the answer. This is more than a simple decision - Contador has won 3 straight Grand Tours while Lance won 7 straight Tour de Frances before retiring in 2005. And despite Lance, Alberto, and Johan Bruyneel (the team director for Astana) all trying to say the politically correct things, the fact remains that neither Lance nor Alberto seem to be 100% sold on the idea of sharing the top billing. This story from mid-June shows that Contador was in active talks with at least two teams (Garmin and Caisse d'Epargne) to join them if Astana folded before the Tour started (it was in financial turmoil until days before the Tour started). So obviously Contador is not 100% happy being Lance's teammate, there is bound to be friction. But friction is still a long way from jeopardizing the team's goal of a Yellow Jersey in Paris in two-and-a-half-weeks...
With a time lead over Contador heading into Tuesday's team time trial, Astana was in great position to try and take the Yellow Jersey from Cancellara if they could win the stage by 40 seconds. In a performance reminiscent of the Blue Train that Lance's USPS team of the early 2000's was famous for, Team Astana won the stage by exactly those 40 seconds, and tonight Lance sits in a virtual tie for the race lead. He is not the official leader (Cancellara still leads by less than half a second) but is in the driver's seat to seize the race lead once the mountains begin on Friday. All Lance needs to do is to finish alongside Contador and he will probably go to bed on Friday evening as the race leader. Of course, another twist could switch this up, but right now, Lance might be chuckling to himself at how well this is playing out for him.
What will happen in the days to come? Lance needs a couple more good breaks like the one that happened yesterday to stay ahead of the younger (and potentially stronger) cyclists who are out to dethrone the 7-time champ. I'd still wager that Contador will win the race. But cheering for Lance these last four days is like cheering for a back-from-retirement Michael Jordan in 1996 or watching Jack Nicklaus climb up the leaderboard at the Masters in 1986. It's great to see Lance back being relevant at the Tour. Let's keep hoping...
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