Kona Preview...and Predictions!

Hi All,

We are now less than 48 hours from the start of the 2010 Ironman World Championships in Kona, Hawaii, and it’s about time that I preview the race and make some predictions.

The Womens Race

As most of you know,  Chrissie Wellington is making her case for the Greatest of all time.  Right now it’s Paula Newby-Fraser (8 wins) and Natascha Badmann (6 wins) who get the most votes, but Chrissie is moving in the right direction. She’s now won consecutive Ironman races in Korea, Kona (2007), Australia, Germany, Kona (2008), Australia, Roth, Kona (2009), and Roth so far in 2010. That makes her 9 for 9 over 140.6 miles, and if she wants to continue her path towards GOAT status, she needs to make it to the finish line first on Saturday.

So far in 2010, Chrissie has won all 3 races she’s started, breaking records left and right. She’s improved her swim (first female out of the water at Ironman Kansas), bike (a 4:36 bike split at Roth) and hopes to see her best run time ever in Kona. She's a machine who threatens to beat male pros every time she starts.

However, in 2010 she faces what might be the strongest field she has ever competed against. There’s Mirinda Carfrae, 2^nd last year and holder of the Kona run record. There’s Julie Dibens, current 70.3 World Champion and the last person to beat Chrissie in a race (last year at the Boulder half Ironman race). There’s Sam McGlone, who in 2007 finished 5 minutes behind Chrissie in what has been Chrissie’s closest finish yet. On the flip side, there are questions about all 3 of her main contenders. Can Mirinda stay close enough to Chrissie to make her run speed matter? Can Julie get far enough ahead of Chrissie to put Chrissie under pressure? And can Sam put it all together like she did in 2008, and still have some running legs to compete late in the race?

On top of Mirinda, Julie, and Sam, there are lots of other women who can complicate things. There’s Tereza Macel,  had a breakthrough year in 2009, winning two Ironman races and then finishing 4^th in Kona. There’s Rebekah Keat, who has challenged Chrissie at Roth the last two years until Chrissie found another gear on the run. There’s also last year’s 3^rd place finisher, Virginia Beratasegui, who  came from nowhere to finish 3^rd last year. And Linsey Corbin, who had an amazing day in 2008 before falling apart in 2009. With a new coach and a new focus, she might be ready to put it all together again. Plus Kona veterans like Joanna Lawn, Belinda Granger, Kate Major, etc…

So what’s going to happen?  I see a group of women trying  to pull away on the bike, trying desperately to either pressure Chrissie or put some time on her. Remember, Chrissie was on pace to break the Ironman bike record last year until the winds picked up on the way home. This year, Dibens and Macel could potentially beat Chrissie to T2, but I don’t see Chrissie letting them get more than a couple of minutes. That will string out the rest of the ladies, and turn the run into a battle for second.  Chrissie might even be trying to win back her run record (set in 2008, broken in 2009 by Carfrae) and reset the course record. Chrissie has shown that records are made to be broken.

My top ten,,,

1. Chrissie - A mortal lock. A lava flow wont slow her down.
2. Carfrae – will run herself into 2nd. Again. 
3. Corbin – has been peaking for this race
4.  McGlone – will be a factor, not sure if she can run fast enough to make podium.
5. Dibens – amazing swim/bike, will need another year before she can run fast in Kona.
6. Rebekah Keat - has to make up for last year's DQ
7. Caroline Steffen – short course girl doing Kona debut
8. Catriona Morison – mainly known for her dominance in duathlon
9. Yvonne Van Vlerken – 2^nd at Kona just two years ago
10. Amy Marsh – American girl who has multiple wins this year behind Brett Sutton’s coaching

Men’s Race

I love this year’s men’s field. Most men only race sparingly nowadays, preferring to save themselves for one peak race in Kona. Craig Alexander and Chris Lieto, last year’s top two finishers, haven’t done an Iron-distance race since last year in Kona. Other top contenders like Rasmus Henning (Roth), Chris McCormack (Frankfurt), Andy Potts (Coeur D’Alene), Andreas Raelert (Frankfurt), and Terenzo Bozzone (New Zealand) did one full Ironman this year as part of their build-up to Kona. We’ll see whose strategy pays off on Saturday.

Until he gets defeated, the odds-on favorite has to be Craig Alexander. The two-time defending champion (who was second in his Kona debut in 2007), is healthy and has been dominant this year in his 70.3 races. His strategy is to bike at his pace, knowing his superior running will catch the cyclists before the end of the race. However, one of these years he might give someone too much rope.

There’s a huge group of European contenders, including Luxembourg’s Dirk Bockel, Belgians Marino Vanhoenacker and Rutger Beke, the Dane Rasmus Henning,  and the German peloton of Normann Stadler, Faris Al-Sultan, Timo Bracht, and Andreas Raelert.  Then we have Australia’s Macca, Luke Bell, and Pete Jacobs and their Kiwi neighbours Cam Brown and the up-and-coming Terenzo Bozzone. It will be a battle out there.

I see the men’s race being a lot like last year’s – a few cyclists get away late on the bike, with the pure runners content to let them go. But there just might a guy who sneaks between those two groups who can do some damage. I’m thinking it will Raelert or Bozzone or Henning, but I think Raelert’s new bike speed might be enough to give him those extra couple of minutes to hold off Alexander.

My top ten...

1. Andreas Raelert – might hand off title to his little brother, who after defending 70.3 World title, will compete at Kona in 2011.
2. Rasmus Henning – has the pure speed. Can he improve under the Kona conditions?
3. Craig Alexander – maybe just an off-year
4.  Terenzo Bozzone – still learning the Irongame
5. Andy Potts – 7^th in 2008, 9^th in 2009, better this year
6. Dirk Bockel – trains with Raelerts, bikes like the Schlecks
7.  Marino Vanhoenacker – consistent, solid 2010 so far
8. Chris Lieto – I’m daring him to prove me wrong and lay down a killer run
9. Pete Jacobs – the latest star who learned to win in Australia
10.  Chris McCormack – would love to see him win again, but years of racing catching up with him

Of course, you could build a pretty solid argument for Timo Bracht, Cam Brown,  Rutger Beke and any number of other pros. Not to mention previous winners Stadler and Al-Sultan. 

I’ll have a post-race post sometime after the race.

More soon…