Hi All,
Tomorrow bright and early in Clearwater, Florida, the 70.3 racers have their chance at winning the Ironman 70.3 World Championships. It's an interesting race, short enough for ITU athletes to use their superior speed, while long enough that Ironman pros and non-drafting athletes can use their biking abilities to speed ahead. But in reality, it appears that this event is a precursor to greatness at the Ironman distance. The winners in 2006 were Craig Alexander and Sam McGlone (who both finished 2nd at Kona the next year); in 2007 it was Mirinda Carfrae (2nd at Kona this year) and Andy Potts (twice top 10 in Kona since); in 2008, the top two guys (Terrenzo Bozzone and Andreas Raelert) both made top 11 at Kona. So if history holds, we might be looking at the next up-and-comers to make the jump at Clearwater...
Ok, so who's racing? The entire pro list is pretty lengthy. But a few names do stick out as the favorites..the men's field is loaded. I consider the race to have 3 main favorites: Matt Reed, Tim O'Donnell, and last year's champ Terenzo Bozzone. We might ordinarily discount Bozzone after just finishing Kona about 5 weeks ago, but he has the speed and youth to recover and reload to defend his title. Both Slowtwitch and Triathlete Magazine picked Matt Reed to win, based on his very good season so far. But I think something will go wrong and he'll be unable to stay away for the entire bike ride, leaving the race open to a foot race. And here I'll pick Tim O'Donnell, who has won almost everything this year, and who looks as though he is still peaking (won the ITU Long Distance title in October). I think it's his time to shine, he's 29 and ready to make the next step.
For my long shot special, I like Joe Gambles (from Australia) as a guy ready to fight for the podium with the big names. Other names to watch include Philip Graves (20 years old!)and Fraser Cartmell. Canada has 7 pro men (!) in the field, led by Brent McMahon, who has had a decent season in 2009 (unlike his rock-solid finish to 2008). It started off with a bang when he beat Craig Alexander in April at 70.3 New Orleans, but after an uneventful summer racing ITU, I'm not sure if he's ready to go all out in Clearwater. He's our best shot for a Top 5 finish.
Last year's women's race was a USA three-peat (Joanna Zeiger over Mary Beth Ellis and Becky Lavelle). This year could be a Great Britain three-peat. They have 4 very fast females in the field including Leanda Cave, Julie Dibens, Catriona Morrison, and Jodie Swallow. Dibens and Swallow have won world titles in the past month in Xterra and ITU Long Distance events, while Cave and Morrison are veterans who know how to show up at big events. It will be interesting to watch the British and the American go head to head. Zeiger and Ellis are back again in 2009, joined by very fast Rebaccah Wassner, Sarah Groff, and the veteran Laura Bennett. It should be a nice battle...
Triathlete Magazine likes Dibens-Swallow-Bennett-Zeiger while Slowtwitch likes Dibens-Swallow-Bennett-Groff-Zeiger (yikes, eerily similar). As much as I want to pick against Julie Dibens (who beat Chrissie Wellington at a half-Ironman this summer), I don't think I can. Let's go with Dibens-Bennett (Laura can always run with the best) with Canada's Magali Tisseyre in third. Yep, a complete homer pick but she's fast and might be ready to run herself onto the podium. A couple of dark horses could be Sam Warriner (shows up in big races) and Lucie Zelenkova (another TBB athlete who is really strong swim-bike). And yes, a Great Britain sweep will result in another "The Brits are coming" post...
Whole race is live on Ironman.com Saturday morning!\
And full recap to come next week...check back...
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