The biggest triathlon of the year (ummm, except for the Olympic Triathlon which happened this year) is the 30th Ironman World Championship, this Saturday in Kona, Hawaii. It is the Big Kahuna, and is the race where legends are made. Dave Scott, Mark Allen, Paula Newby-Fraser, Natascha Badmann, and Peter Reid all became legends (those 5 are the only ones who have won Kona 3 or more times).
Canadians have won the race 8 times, with Peter Reid a 3-time winner, Lori Bowden and Sylvia Puntous won twice each, and Heather Fuhr won once. Not bad - 8 wins in the first 30 years! Is there a Canadian heading to the top of the podium this year? Read on...
Actually before I get to the actual predictions, I did want to recap a couple of the good stories in Kona. Despite my post about sharks in the oceans around Kona (don't worry, never been an attack remotely close to the swimming bay), the best part about swimming practice during race week is the floating espresso bar. True! Coffees of Hawaii sets up a floating bar out in the bay every year, and all the athletes tend to congregate out there for the best swim aid station ever! Check out the pics.
In addition to providing a java fix, the bar also appears to be a place where dolphins congregate. Seriously! This week swimmers were able to swim with dolphins just a few feet from the coffee bar. Now that is amazing! Even I might go for an extra swim or two with dolphins around...
The other highlight of Ironman week is the Annual Underpants Run. For those of you who don't understand it, I can't even begin to explain it. Anyhow, here are some pictures, including an intriguing place to stash a gel, and a very promotional bikini!
Womens Race - a good blogger would try and build a case for multiple competitors. However, to save time, just bet the house on Chrissie Wellington. The defending champion, who came out of nowhere last year, has never been defeated in a Ironman (she is now 4 for 4 in her career) and looks unbeatable. With last year's second place finisher Sam McGlone out with an Achilles injury, 2006 winner Michellie Jones out with a calf injury and 2005 winner (and 2004, and 2002, and 2001, and 2000, and 1998) Natascha Badmann questionable with an injury as well, Wellington might be the only current Kona winner to toe the line. Actually, I'm lying, since 1995 winner Karen Smyers will start, but since she's 47 years old I don't like her chances.
So Wellington should win. Bigger question for her is whether she can break Paula's course record of 8:55. It's doable for Chrissie if the conditions stay good (appears not too windy for Saturday). She is only 31 years of age and can quite honestly dominate this race for the next decade. She's that good.
That being said, anyone who has done an Ironman knows that plans do not always work out. Bike problems, nutrition problems, swim contact, a tweaked leg muscle or two can wreck the event for even the best athletes. But this year is going to be Chrissie's.
Second thru tenth is pretty wide open. Kate Major has been third three times i think, but this year she'll miss the podium. I think she'll finish fourth. Erika Csomor, who was unreal this spring but faded from the spotlight this summer, is my pick for silver. This year's breakthrough newcomer will be Leanda Cave, who has never been to Kona but won the 70.3 Worlds last year. She's got the speed to run through the field and will finish third.
Yvonne Van Vlerken, who set a Iron-distance record by going 8:47 at Roth this year, has already peaked this year and will finish 5th. I'm picking Jo Lawn to hold off Belinda Granger for 6th, with fellow Australian Rebekah Keat finishing 8th. I'll pick Gina Ferguson from New Zealand to finish 9th, with Desiree Ficker gritting her way to 10th. As much as I wanted to pick a Canadian female to finish Top 10, the fast girls (Heather Wurtele, Tara Norton, and Sara Gross) have all raced too much this year. So I'm thinking Top 10 might be too much. For the record, I think Wurtele will be top Canadian (in 11th place hopefully).
The Mens Race will be much different. The last 3 champions are all eager to win again, with Norman and Macca still holding some grudges against each other. Add Craig Alexander into the mix and we could see an epic race down Alli'i drive. But that rarely happens. Faris Al-Sultan, the 2005 Champion, appeared to catch lightning in a bottle that year, and he has rarely shown that form since. So let's eliminate him. Chris McCormack (aka Macca, the 2007 Champ) puts all his eggs in the Kona basket, and over the past couple of years has put up great results. So he's got to be in the championship picture. Norman Stadler (the 2004 and 2006 champ), has alternated by winning with virtuouso performances and then falling apart on an epic scale. His 2005 breakdown (after numerous bike problems) is one of the best in modern history.
Will this be Craig Alexander's year? Crowie (his nickname) finished 2nd in his Ironman debut last year, but he has spent all year padding his bank account by winning 70.3 races. I'm not sold that he has full Iron fitness. So I'll drop him back as well.
Ok, let's give Stadler the benefit of the doubt. He wants to prove that the 2 victories were not a fluke. He will win this year, as he out-bikes the rest of the contenders and holds on for his third title, which will put him into very select company. Macca will try to run him down but just fall short and finish second (not unlike what happened in 2006).
Okay, who will finish third? Last year it was Torbjorn Sindballe. Cam Brown has a 2nd and two 3rds in the past 6 years. Chris Lieto and Marino Vanhoenacker were both in the Top 6 last year. Luke Bell has been in the Top 5 before. Steve Larsen, who used to be a pro cyclist, is in great shape this year. Plus Timo Bracht and Luc Van Lierde and Patrick Vernay and Jan Raphael and Michael Lovato and Michael Goehner and Luke McKenzie and Stephen Bayliss...so many talented guys!
Before I make my predictions, I did want to mention Andy Potts. He is the short-course guy making the jump to Ironman this year. Potts failed to make the US Olympic team, and thus spent his year doing non-drafting races and the occasional 70.3 race. He won the star-studded Ironman 70.3 California in March and won a late season 70.3 as well. He has the swim speed (should be first out of the water) and run speed but can he cycle with the big guys?
Ok, enough suspense. I'm picking Eneko Llanos in third. Although known more for his success in Xterra racing, he stuck with Macca at Ironman Germany this year, and might be able to stick around the top in Kona as well. Vanhoenacker will finish 4th, with Patrick Vernay in 5th. Steve Larsen will fade on the run for 6th, with Luke McKenzie giving Australia three places in the Top 7. Andy Potts will finish 8th, with Stephen Bayliss 9th and Torbjorn Sindballe 10th. Phew.
That being said, anything can happen. There are 17 male German pros!! So I'm just guessing...
Oh yeah, top Canadian male? Let's go with Kyle Marcotte, who will finish around 20th overall.
Okay, so there are my lists. Check back Monday for the recap!
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