This weekend brings 3 of the biggest races in the Bike-Y world (although one of them has no bikes), the two triathlon races (Sunday evening in North America for the women's race and Monday for the men's) while the women's marathon goes Saturday afternoon over here.
Let's start with the Men's Triathlon since that is the one in which Canada has the best shot at a medal. It appears it would take a monumental upset for Javier Gomez to not win the Gold, but the other two podium places could accomadate a Canadian. Simon Whitfield is on form (seeded 6th heading into the race) is our big hope, with Paul Tichelaar (who is now free to race his own race!) also a top-5 contender. Whitfield has had a great summer, including winning a non-drafting race in Minnesota (Life Time Fitness) which highlights where his cycling skills are. The only men to defeat Whitfield twice this year are Javier Gomez and Bevan Docherty (New Zealand). Other contenders include Australia's Brad Kahlefeldt, Germany's Daniel Unger, and Denmark's Rasmus Henning. Long shots have podiumed in the past two Olympics (who remembers Stephan Vuckovic and Jan Rehula in 2000 or Sven Reiderer in 2004?) so on any given day someone could have the race of their life. The swim positions have been included below, and it's interesting to see that most of the top contenders chose positions on the right side of the pontoon (Gomez, Docherty, Don, Whitfield and Tichelaar are the first 5) so it's likely they'll all keep their eyes on each other in the swim. I'll predict Gomez-Whitfield-Kahlefeldt as Top 3 as the pack will not let any bikers get enough gap to outrun the true gazelles of the sport. Greg Welch has his preview here but doesn't want to make any predictions. Let's go Canada!
The women's race is a battle of the titans. Since Vanessa Fernandes and Emma Snowsill rarely race against each other, it's a tough race to call. Snowsill did beat Fernandes at the season opening race, but I'm going to pick Fernandes here. She races well in the heat, and has something to prove after a terrible race at worlds in Vancouver. Snowsill will hold onto second, with Debbie Tanner outrunning Sam Warriner, Laura Bennett, Emma Moffatt, and Felicity Abram for third. But just like the men, anything can happen. The Canadian team has Carolyn Murray, Kathy Tremblay, and Lauren Groves, who can all place in the Top 10 if things fall their way. Murray needs the swim of her life to stay in the main field, but can run with the elite women if she can start the run with them. Tremblay and Groves will also be contenders, but their lack of breakthrough races this year make them podium longshots. Maybe they can channel some strength from our women's wrestlers?
Interestingly, the women chose a completely different swim strategy, with most of the favorites on the extreme left edge of the pontoon. Carolyn Murray is a long way from the favorites, but must try and bridge up with some quicker swimmers around her. If you want another opinion, read Welchy's preview here.
Women's marathon - is Paula Radcliffe healthy enough to compete? To win? Coming off injury, she has trained for 12 weeks, with up to 9 hours of training per day to get ready for Beijing. The only marathon she didn't win was the 2004 Athens Olympics. She really wants to cap her career resume with a gold here. But will Paula at 90% be enough to hold off the rest of the field. Strong veterans like Catherine Ndereba (Kenya), Geta Wami (Ethiopia) and Deena Kastor (USA) plus strong teams from Japan and China will make it difficult. Plus the expected heat, humidity, and smog in Beijing. It should be an epic showdown!
Oh my god..almost forgot, late Sunday morning is the men's 10,000m! Haile Gebrselassie versus Kenenisa Bekele. It's a battle of the ages with the 35 year Geb versus the 26-year old 5000 and 10,000m world record holder. It's doubtful Geb can still keep up, but let's give Ethiopia 1-2 on the podium. As with the women's marathon, no Canadians!
And congrats to Tirunesh Dibaba, who ran 29m54s to win gold in the women's 10000m. This despite having to weave around dozens of lapped runners over the last few kms. The field had 32 runners, which made it so confusing that American Shalane Flanagan was not even sure she finished 3rd!
See you Monday!
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